Opinion: “Sainz to Williams? No need to sound the alarms.”
Several months of protracted negotiations and rumours have finally come to an end with the confirmation that Carlos Sainz Jr. has officially signed for Williams. The internet’s reaction? Sound the alarms and prepare to watch a Ricciardo-esque downfall from podiums and wins to point-less finishes and DNFs – but is there a bit more to it?
“On paper? Looks like a big downgrade from Ferrari but this could absolutely be a masterstroke from Sainz and Vowles. To contextualise why this isn’t as bad as some may think, we’ll begin with the other teams flirted with – Sainz Jr. stated that after the news Hamilton was to unseat him at Ferrari, he had received offers from all the other F1 teams with vacant seats.
Firstly there’s the obvious choice, Mercedes-AMG. A high-performance team with a car that, as we’ve seen at Spa and Silverstone for instance, is capable of winning. However, with Toto Wolff’s heart set on F2 talent Kimi Antonelli (and from the comments made recently, potentially even Max Verstappen in 2026) this was only ever going to be a short term deal. With only a year on the cards, no doubt Sainz was not going to be eager to repeat this hassle next year.
Sauber-Soon-To-Be-Audi likely were looking for some longer-term commitment to build a project around them as with Hülkenberg. Whilst Sainz Sr. races with Audi and given that they’ve seen some decent results in other motorsports series such as the World Rally Championships, Le Mans prototypes and Formula E – this should seem a fairly palatable option no?
Maybe – but with a very public management shake-up resulting in Binotto’s return and revealing a potentially less stable project than thought, maybe less so. Sauber thus far have failed to get any points in 2024 which is hardly a confidence boost even with a manufacturer change and unlike Williams, the woeful results are considerably less attributable to the drivers the way Williams’ points could (at least in part) be. Suffering through 2025 in the hopes the 2026 car could be a marked improvement may not be a gamble worth taking considering what it could do to his marketability as a driver to other teams should the project not work out. So whilst they may have offered a bit more job security than Mercedes, if the success does not come then that “security” might feel more like being shackled.
Prior to summer break in particular, the Red Bull seat was looking remarkably shaky with Sergio Perez leading the Destructors’ Championship - a tongue in cheek ranking of drivers based on the cost of damages they’ve incurred over the course of the race calendar. Languishing in standings, with his teammate having double the points in the Drivers’ Championship, many thought the decision renew Perez’s contract was a bit bizarre to be frank. By the June, there was a lot of fresh speculation as to whether Sainz was to move to Red Bull in spite of this contract. There’s an element of shame with this – how can they offer the contract and within a couple of months rescind it – and I don’t say this because I’m under any illusions of how cutthroat this sport is, let alone how historically cutthroat Red Bull have been with their drivers, but it’s certainly not a good look for them. In fact, it would make them look rather foolish to have offered the contract in the first place. But let’s entertain this for a moment - ignoring the history between Sainz and Verstappen Seniors, Red Bull have historically been quite clear about who their number 1 driver is, and I find it very unlikely that Sainz Jr. would be quite so happy to sit back and assume a support role indefinitely.
Back to Williams then, if the rumours are true and that Carlos Sainz Jr. was in fact offered a 2-year contract with option to extend, it’s a masterstroke from Vowles and co. Williams aren’t just a stepping stone whilst looking for a better team with Sainz effectively having to give them a chance once the 2026 regulations come into effect. However Sainz, who we know is a very ambitious driver, isn’t locked into a project that may not yield results (although with a Mercedes engine, it’s perhaps less of a gamble compared to going with Audi). Whilst of course, Williams strive to be competitive, let’s be realistic - the metric for success is wildly different than for teams like Ferrari or Mercedes. In the car he’ll be in, certainly in 2025, finishing in the points and around/above Albon could be considered a strong performance and this will likely be a focus. Either Williams will end up a lot more competitive after 2026 and he’s able to earn himself a longer stay or if the technical development significantly fails to live up to aspirations, he’ll have proven himself, exceeding expectations and potentially earning himself a drive elsewhere that’s more competitive.
Sainz is ambitious and so is Vowles and Williams. And despite their current form (and the pain the Spaniard’s fans will have to endure through 2025), it’s a smart move and I’d argue fans of Carlos Sainz Jr. have a lot more to be optimistic about than they might think.
